How Automated Vehicles affects Land Use
Many studies show that Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) could change the layout of urban areas [1], [2], [3], potentially leading to dispersed development or densification of cities. By lowering travel expenses, AVs could influence residential and work locations, potentially leading to more pronounced urban sprawl. For example, Moore et al., [4] used a web-based survey of commuters in 2017 in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metropolitan Area (DFW) and predicted a substantial extent of urban sprawl up to a 68 percent increase in the horizontal spread of cities due to AVs. AVs could also increase urban density by decreasing the need for parking, leading to more dense and mixed use development.
AV could increase trip lengths and induce suburban and exurban development [5], [6], [7], [8]. Nadafianshahamabadi et al., [9] utilized an integrated model of land use, travel demand, and air quality. The modeling is designed for the Albuquerque, New Mexico metropolitan area to demonstrate that AVs encourage development at the urban fringe. While jobs and population typically migrate outward in tandem, trip lengths and overall travel demand continue to rise due to the relatively low density in these emerging areas compared to traditional urban employment centers. Similarly, Gelauff et al. [10] used equilibrium model to simulate spatial effects of AVs and found that population tends to increase in large metropolises and their suburbs, at the expense of smaller cities and non-urban regions given high automation with good public transport systems in Netherlands. Carrese et al. [11] used discrete choice modeling and traffic simulation to study the residential relocation due to different time perception. Results show that about 40 percent of respondents would move to the suburbs under the AV regime in Rome, Italy, and travel time would increase by 12 percent for suburban resident commuters.
Besides contributing to the development of new peripheral centers, AV has the potential to densify the existing urban landscape by reallocating space for residential, economic, and leisure activities [12]. Zakharenko [1] concluded that with the introduction of AVs, the need for daytime parking may shift to outlying areas, which would allow for denser economic activity and increased land rents in downtown areas. As AVs potentially reduce car ownership, it's anticipated that less space will be required for parking, which could give rise to more high-density and mixed-use developments [13], [14], [15]. Zhang and Guhathakurta [16] developed a discrete event simulation model to assess the impact of Shared AVs (SAVs) on urban parking land use in Atlanta, Georgia and concluded that SAV can reduce parking land by 4.5 percent at a 5 percent market penetration level and each SAV can emancipate more than 20 parking spaces. However, some research indicates that vehicles are traveling longer distances daily, and there could be an increase in parking space on the outskirts [17], [18].
In general, most studies found that private AVs can potentially lead to dispersed urban development, while SAVs are expected to contribute to densification of city centers. Current areas for future research include: 1) AV effects on people's residential and employment location decisions, recreation spaces and supply of infrastructure. 2) long-term effects of AVs on urban land use patterns to promote AV adoption with efficient use of land. 3) infrastructure adaptation to fully accommodate the new traffic dynamics and parking needs introduced by AVs [19].
References
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Note: Mobility COE research partners conducted this literature review in Spring of 2024 based on research available at the time. Unless otherwise noted, this content has not been updated to reflect newer research.